About Iran…
Lurking behind the war in Iraq is the growing threat of Iran and what to do about it. Here’s an interesting analysis from a place that has a most immediate vested interest in that solution.
Seating himself in the center of The Jerusalem Post’s conference room, Prof. Bernard Lewis…sketched out a vision of extremist Islamic ambition at chilling odds with his placid, soft-spoken delivery.
For President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s Iran, he noted dryly, the notion of mutual assured destruction, of certain devastation so immense as to have kept the United States and the Soviet Union from firing their missiles at each other through the Cold War, was “not a deterrent,” but rather “an inducement.” Given the apocalyptic messianism of Ahmadinejad and his supporters, “if they kill large numbers of their own people, they are doing them a favor. They are giving them a quick free pass to heaven and all its delights, the divine brothel in the skies.”
That seems insurmountable.
Nonetheless, Lewis, whose recent bestsellers have included What Went Wrong? The Clash between Islam and Modernity in the Middle East and the post-9/11 The Crisis of Islam: Holy War and Unholy Terror, was not unremittingly bleak in outlook. He argued that Iran’s goals could yet be thwarted, by encouraging the Iranian people to turn against their regime. “There is a level of discontent at home, which could be exploited,” he said strikingly. “I do not think it would be too difficult to bring it to the point when the regime could be overthrown.”
And this is a key proposition, which I’ve heard little of since first encountering it last year in a young Iranian activist involved in a movement of peaceful resistance and demonstrations inside Iran. There are several such groups, but they need to align to have more impact, and they need exposure.
I do not know what Washington intends to do, or what Israel intends to do. My own preference would be to deal with the Iranian regime by means of the Iranian people.
All the evidence is that the regime is extremely unpopular with their own people. I am told that the Israeli daily [radio] program in Persian is widely listened to all over Iran with rapt attention and it is the only one that they believe.
Iranians were furious over the Lebanese war, feeling that they had been dragged into it and their resources were being squandered on promoting this dubious cause when things are deteriorating from bad to worse at home.
I think there is a level of discontent at home, which could be exploited. I do not think it would be too difficult to bring it to the point when the regime could be overthrown.
It’s no doubt being stoked right now, but so is the further unrest and threat outside Iran that poses the danger until that regime is stopped. It’s a good news/bad news situation.
The developments in the Middle East are both alarming and encouraging, depending on the angle of vision. The bad news on the general situation now is the increasing violence, the increasing support which the various extremist and terrorist movements seem to be getting. Most alarming of all is the steady increase in the area [in which] they have influence or dominate, which before long will probably include Europe.
This is hugely important, and amazingly close to happening.
A Syrian philosopher published an article not long ago in which he said the only question about the future of Europe is: “Will it be an Islamized Europe or Europeanized Islam?” And I am inclined to agree with him about that. In that respect, it is discouraging. Particularly alarming is the apocalyptic mood, which we see in Iran now.
Which gets back to Ahmadinejad and his apocalyptic vision, and his ability to carry it out. That’s why it’s remarkable that resistance movements are operating actively and producing a counter-mood of hope.
The other encouraging sign, very faint and very distant, is of a genuine change of mood among people in some Arab countries. Talking to people in Arab countries in the last few years, some of those people express attitudes which I have never met before. I do not know how deep this goes and how strong it is, but it is there and it never was before. That is a good sign.
With the spread and speed of information across technological routes, the people are getting knowledge of alternatives, and using it. Like when they tune into television channels from other countries in the region.
As one fellow put it, it is amazing to watch these great and famous people banging the table and screaming at each other. They are used to people banging the table and screaming, but not at each other. They can get different points of view, but they have to tune in to different stations.
The sort of free debate on Israel television and, even more striking, the fact that Arabs can denounce the Israeli government on Israeli television, that has an impact. I have heard people mention this again and again. It doesn’t go unnoticed.
It’s the power of critical thinking, and the opportunity to hear ideas. That’s where the hope is.
