Faith in the candidates

What a difference an election cycle makes. Now, religion and personal beliefs about life are important issues for presidential candidates, and they’re producing headlines we didn’t see in the mainstream in the past. Like this one on Kate O’Beirne’s analysis.

If he goes the distance next year, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney would be the first Mormon ever elected President. What role his religion will play in his bid for the GOP nomination is already being widely discussed.

Religion is a big issue this time around, and a big asset instead of a liability, in an odd jockeying for grassroots support. Catholics figure prominently into the debate.

Although former Mayor Rudy Giuliani also could make history, as the first Catholic nominated for President by the Republican Party, the effect of his religion has, to date, been largely ignored. It shouldn’t be. Giuliani’s Catholicism – and his rejection of some church teachings – could be a significant factor over the long run of the 2008 campaign.

The times have changed politics.

Concerns about conflicted Catholic politicians have largely been laid to rest in recent years, ever since John F. Kennedy gave his historic 1960 speech on balancing the dictates of faith with the obligations of public office.

But the teachings of the Church are timeless.

Giuliani’s multiple marriages, his pro-choice stand on abortion and his support of gay civil unions are at odds with his church’s positions – so there is no cause to worry that he would be a Catholic President taking directions from the Vatican. But for many Catholics, Giuliani’s dissident views could challenge their devotion to the Republican Party.

In his 2004 race against John Kerry, the first Catholic nominee since 1960, George Bush won a majority of Catholic voters by a margin of five points – and carried Catholics who attend services weekly by 13 points. Catholics made up 27% of the electorate in 2004, and are the dominant religion in two-thirds of the presidential battleground states.

Giuliani will need those votes to win. In presidential races over the past 50 years, Republicans have repeatedly been elected thanks largely to Southerners and Catholics who abandoned their ancestral political affiliations. Many of the Catholics who were once Reagan Democrats have become reliable Republican voters in reaction to the excesses of a cultural left that is firmly rooted in the base of the modern Democratic Party.

For Giuliani, that’s the rub. Polling shows that a significant percentage of Catholic Republicans share the economic views of big-government liberals rather than small-government conservatives – but many support the Republican Party owing to social issues like abortion.

Now, it’s more up for grabs, with both parties breaking apart into groups that represent liberal and conservative – and moderate — principles within the party, like the Blue Dog Democrats who won big last November, largely by being pro-life and socially conservative.