Get beyond campaign rhetoric

Last summer during the Senate confirmation hearings of first John Roberts and then Samuel Alito for the Supreme Court, some of the news analysts pointed to the function of shaping the Supreme Court as the most important factor in selecting a president. If anybody missed the point then, we’re starting to hear it brought into sharper focus again now. The Supreme Court and abortion are the defining issues of the presidential election.

The next U.S. president could reshape the Supreme Court, where the two oldest members are liberals and volatile decisions like abortion now hinge on a single swing vote.

The possible sea change has already surfaced 18 months before the November 2008 election and could develop into a major campaign issue for Democrats who want to move the court to the left and Republicans who hope to plant it firmly in the conservative camp.

The U.S. high court is now evenly split between conservative and liberal justices, who have been divided by 5-4 votes on abortion rights, the death penalty and the environment.

Duke University law professor Erwin Chemerinsky predicts the next president probably will get two or three Supreme Court appointments. “They will determine the results in countless issues, like abortion rights,” he said.

Supreme Court justices have lifetime tenure, and no one knows when the next vacancy will occur.

Those points - along with the fact that a Supreme Court appointment will have an impact on the nation that far outlives one presidency – are more significant in the election than any public opinion polls or campaign promises.