Let’s think our way out of this crisis

Given how much fear drives markets, it seems like a major leap of faith could get us jump started out of this mess. Or is that too simplistic… 

I almost passed over this WSJ piece that at first glance looks like more number crunching and financial reporting that glaze the eyes, but then caught this:

“Right now, more than a crisis in mortgages or in housing, we have a crisis in confidence. That is biggest problem in trying to analyze the current market,” said James Stack, president of market research firm InvesTech Research in Whitefish, Mont. “You cannot analyze psychology.”

Let’s try.

Says here…

“There were a lot of people that were banking on Washington to get us out of this. I don’t know if there is anything Washington can do,” [Todd] Salamone said.

That tells us a lot of people ought not expect government to solve all of our problems.

In other words, don’t rely on the “Abracadabra” effect.

As recent history teaches, economic crises arouse an emotional panic that tempts us to believe that centrally planning the economy is the medicine for economic recovery and the best safeguard against future volatility. To make matters worse, spin doctors lead anxiety-laden people to believe the notion that without government oversight we are doomed. This history displays a major moral temptation of economic crises: a prideful belief in our capacity to “save” the economy by controlling the decisions of the millions of human beings who participate in it every day.

As Dr. Bradley reminds…

We have forgotten what Harvard economist and past president of the American Economic Association, Frank Taussig, told us in his 1911 book, Principles of Economics: “We must accept the consumer as the final judge.”

And consumers seeking goods and services they need fuels the engine that drives the economy. We can do this. As soon as we can summon up some confidence…

0 Comment

  • Now that all the stimulus stuff has been baked in, watch for the Prez to be a lot more optimistic. You know that old “the hundred mile walk begins with the first step.” But we are in a unnusual mess with no one knowing how bad bank’s liabilities in bad assets are, not knowing how many more foreclosures are in store, how low typical housing prices have yet to fall, not knowing how many more people will lose their jobs through layoffs. Until we know these things, we won’t know how low the stock market will fall.

    What surprises me are the govermors who say they won’t take the stimulus money. If I were the President I would simply say, “on behalf of the other states, I say thanks to the people of your state for helping the others out. We’re planning how to help the other states with your money!” Then just sit back and wait for everyone to fall in line. Sometimes it pays to play hardball.

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