Trouble brewing in Lebanon
While much of our media are caught up in discussing Iraq and politics, dark clouds have gathered over Lebanon and the trouble is looming larger.
Hundreds of thousands of Hezbollah-led protesters swarmed downtown Beirut on Sunday, demanding Prime Minister Fuad Saniora cede some power to the opposition or step down.
The demonstration could be a tipping point in Lebanon’s burgeoning political crisis, 10 days after a coalition of largely pro-Syrian opposition groups launched a series of rallies against Saniora’s anti-Syrian, U.S.-backed government.
The opposition seeks from the massive show of force to pressure the government and send a message to its Arab and international backers as well.
Sheik Naim Kassem, Hezbollah’s deputy leader, said the opposition was willing to stay on the streets for months to achieve its goal.
What is its goal? To topple Saniora’s government, and install Hezbollah – known to most of the world as a terrorist organization – in power. This would give more power to Syria, pose a greater threat to Israel, and bring the region closer to a larger war.
The political unrest has split the country along dangerous sectarian lines, with most Sunni Muslims supporting the Sunni prime minister and Shiite Muslims backing the militant group Hezbollah. Christian factions are split between the two camps.
What does it mean beyond Beirut?
The Lebanese political crisis also risks creating a new proxy conflict between Shiite-dominated Iran, which supports Hezbollah, and Sunni Arab regimes allied with the U.S.
This battle is an extension of a similar struggle between Iran and Arab governments over the future of Iraq, led by Saddam Hussein’s Sunni regime until the U.S. invasion in 2003.
The two major Arab powers, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, are leading the charge to ensure Saniora’s government does not collapse.
Last weekend, a day after 800,000 people rallied in Beirut demanding Saniora’s resignation, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak warned against “foreign powers,” code for Iran and its ally, Syria, supporting Lebanese Shia and prompting Arab governments to support the Sunnis.
The growing ambitions of Iran, which wields great influence over the Shiite government in Iraq and over Hezbollah, is fueling tensions between Shiite and Sunnis throughout the region.
(emphasis added)
Arab rulers such as Mubarak, who ruthlessly suppress any sign of dissent in their countries, are worried that if the Lebanese government is toppled by Hezbollah’s mass protests, that will embolden other Arab populations.
“The disconnect between Arab masses and their rulers is growing wider,” said Mohammad Abdullah, a prominent Lebanese writer.
Hence, the storm clouds. I don’t think Americans even begin to understand the depths of complexity in these sectarian conflicts that are growing far larger than ‘conflicts.’ I’ve seen three good reports on TV recently, when Fox News, CNN and PBS all did specials on Islam and jihad. This is high on the list of things we need to know.